April 2012 Employment Analysis
March 2012 Employment
The full report can be seen here: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.htm.
The Labor Department reported that the U.S. unemployment rate fell to 8.2 percent in March and total employment rose by 120,000 positions. ADP had projected earlier in the week that 209,000 positions were created in the private sector and a survey of economists by Bloomberg called for a gain of 205,000 positions. Regardless, it was the seventh straight month of job growth of over 100,000 jobs, the approximate level required to outpace population growth.
Growth was concentrated in manufacturing (+37,000), food and beverage establishments (+37,000), and healthcare (+26,000). General merchandise retailers, though, saw a substantial dip (-34,000) for the second month in a row. This comes despite retailers like Target and Gap reporting strong sales during the first quarter. Temporary help services also posted a loss of 7,500 jobs after adding nearly 55,000 in February.
But while temporary work has fallen, temporary workers are not the only short-term source of additional labor. The number of people working part-time for economic reasons fell by more than 400,000 in March and has fallen by nearly 1.6 million since September. Since total employment has been rising during this time, those 1.6 million positions have been replaced by full-time employees.
Employment growth seems to continue to focus on those with Bachelor’s degrees and higher with that segment’s unemployment rate remaining at 4.2 percent for the last three months. Also, the management, business and related occupations unemployment rate has fallen from 4.3 to 4.2 percent over the last year. Also promising is that the average length of unemployment is continuing to fall, with the mean duration of unemployment falling to 39.4 weeks and the median to 19.9 weeks.
March’s figures are likely to be seen as a disappointment, but the shortfall in the numbers was localized. Previous disappointing months have shown slowdowns across a variety of sectors, while March’s numbers showed meaningful reversals in only two. Furthermore, this report comes alongside a variety of improving metrics, retail sales earnings for one. Also, the four-week average unemployment claims rate fell on Thursday to its lowest point since 2008. It will take a few more data points, though, to determine if today’s report was a natural fluctuation, or a change of fortunes.
How To Resign Gracefully
Resigning Gracefully
Congratulations! You’ve landed the job! Now you are faced with the delicate challenge of resigning from your current employer without burning bridges, and saying goodbye to friends and colleagues.
First, draft your resignation letter. Sometimes I will have candidates do this before I even submit their resume to qualify how serious they are about making a change. If they can’t write a resignation letter now, how will they find the courage to do so once they have been made an employment offer by a new company? Here is a great resignation letter template from our website that is simple and to the point.
Then you will make an appointment with your manager to respectfully explain your decision. Your manager needs to hear that your decision is firm and final and that you are committed to your new employer. Express appreciation for the opportunities that your former employer has given you.
Be careful not to get lured into any discussions not related to your resignation, such as how your employer wants to handle your final weeks or the transition of your current responsibilities and projects.
The Danger in Accepting A Counter-Offer From Your Employer
The Counter-Offer
While counter-offers may be tempting and even flattering, there can be pitfalls that you need to be aware of. Ask yourself these questions:
- Will your loyalty always be in question?
- If there are future cutbacks, will you be the first to go because of concerns about your loyalty?
- If you accept the counter-offer for more money, are you just giving your employer the time they need to locate and select your replacement?
- Will your career track remain blocked if you accept it?
- Will your responsibilities be expanded?
- Will you have to report to a person you don’t respect?
- Will you receive next year’s pay rise or bonus early?
- Is the counter-offer a ploy to avoid a short-term inconvenience by your employer?
- What are your realistic chances for promotion now that you have considered leaving?
Counter Offer Statistics
According to national surveys of employees that accept counter-offers, 50-80 percent voluntarily leave their employer within six months of accepting the counter-offer because of unkept promises. The majority of the balance of employees that accept counter-offers involuntarily leave their current employers within twelve months of accepting the counter-offer (terminated, fired, laid off, etc.).
As attractive as counter-offers may appear, they can greatly decrease your chances of achieving your career potential.
February 2012 Employment Analysis
Analysis of the BLS Employment Situation Report
January 2012 Employment
The full report can be seen here: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.htm.
In January, total employment in the United States grew in excess of 200,000 jobs for the second consecutive month. The Labor Department reports 243,000 positions were added in the month and revisions show 203,000 were added in December. The U.S. unemployment rate fell from 8.5 to 8.3 percent despite an influx of more than 500,000 workers into the civilian labor market.
Furthermore, revisions to previous numbers, based on more complete data, show the employment situation may not have been as bad as first reported. Unemployment peaked at 10 percent for a single month in October 2009 before starting to fall. Past reports had unemployment remaining at or above 10 percent for three months. Revisions to 2011′s establishment data also show nearly 266,000 more jobs were created during the year than previously reported, accounting for nearly a 20 percent improvement.
Growth did not appear overly clustered in any specific sector in January, but rather it was spread throughout many sectors. Manufacturing added 50,000 positions, mostly in durable goods, likely an extension of holiday spending which seemed to disproportionately lean towards such items. Food services and drinking places added 33,000 positions, healthcare added 31,000 and construction added 21,000. In the temporary help or contract staffing space, employment grew by 20,100 after having been relatively flat in recent months.
The unemployment rate among those who hold a four-year degree rose from 4.1 to 4.2 percent in January, but that was mostly driven by an increase in those who hold such a degree looking for work. Actual employment by those with a four-year degree rose by 291,000 in January. The management, professional and related occupations unemployment rate fell year over year from 4.7 percent to 4.3 percent. The unemployment rate for those in sales or related occupations also fell, from 9.1 to 8.2 percent from a year ago.
The recovery from the Great Recession has been characterized by fits and starts. Indeed, when comparing the speed of the labor market’s recovery to past recessions, our current path is both longer and slower than any recovery over the last half century. The improvements seen over the last few months though, point to the beginning of a virtuous cycle, with an unemployment rate falling more precipitously than would have been projected just a few months ago.
January 2012 Employment Analysis
MRINetwork Analysis of the BLS Employment Situation Report
December 2011 Employment
The full report can be seen here: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.htm.
Total U.S. employment grew by 200,000 positions in December, while the unemployment rate fell from an adjusted 8.7 to 8.5 percent. Government payrolls lost just 12,000 positions over the month, though the total is down 280,000 from a year ago.
A falling unemployment rate can occasionally report false positives – which could have happened last month – when the number of unemployed people counted is reduced because discouraged workers having not looked for work in the preceding month. In December’s figures, however, the number of people who have searched for a job in the previous 12 months, but not in the last four weeks, actually declined both sequentially and year-over-year. Similarly, the workforce participation rate remained unchanged at 64 percent. All in all, what appear to be positive top line numbers don’t seem to have any significant underlying red flags observed in a number of reports throughout 2011.
Transportation and warehousing positions rose by 50,000, with four-fifths of those coming from seasonally high employment in the courier and messenger industry. This would include the likes of FedEx and UPS, but not the U.S. Postal Service, which also added 2,600 positions. Retail trade added 28,000 positions led by general merchandise and clothing stores. They were countered, though, by a loss of 10,200 jobs by sporting goods, hobby, book, and music stores, likely the result of the continued closing of the Borders Books and Music chain. Other industries that saw gains included food service and drinking places, healthcare, manufacturing, and mining.
Professional and business services, after adding an average of more than 40,000 jobs per month for most of the year, slowed during November and December, adding just 19,000 and 12,000 jobs respectively. While such employers do often complete critical hires during these months, total hiring will slow down due to holidays and vacations. Year-over-year, the management and professional and related occupation unemployment rate fell from 4.6 to 4.2 percent. The number of people employed in such positions rose by 1.1 million from a year ago, representing the lion’s share of the 1.5 million positions created in the workforce overall.
A significant portion of the jobs created in December came from industries likely to be impacted by the holiday shopping season – jobs that are temporary by nature. However, the level at which this hiring took place indicates an increased confidence from these employers, likely because of what they were seeing in their business. Should this confidence carry over to the rest of the economy, other professional services and manufacturing businesses should, hypothetically, see similar boosts in the coming quarter.
Job Interview Do’s & Don’ts
Interviewing Do’s & Don’ts
Do’s
- Arrive 10 minutes early. Tardiness is never excusable.
- Clarify questions. Answer the interviewer’s questions as specifically as possible. Relate your skills and background to the position requirements of the position throughout the interview.
- Give your qualifications. Focus on accomplishments that are most pertinent to the job.
- Anticipate tough questions. Prepare to turn perceived weaknesses into strengths.
- Ask questions. An interview should be a mutual exchange of information, not a one-sided conversation.
- Listen. Concentrate not only on the interviewer’s words, but also on the tone of voice and body language. Once you understand how the interviewer thinks, pattern your answers accordingly and you will be able to establish a better rapport.
- Dress appropriately. Make your first impression a professional one.
- Be professional. Smile, make eye contact and maintain good posture. These are simple but important things that are easy to forget to do during an interview.
Don’ts
- Don’t answer vague questions. Ask the interviewer to clarify fuzzy questions.
- Don’t interrupt the interviewer. If you don’t listen, the interviewer won’t either.
- Don’t be disrespectful. Don’t smoke, chew gum or place anything on the interviewer’s desk.
- Don’t be overly familiar, even if the interviewer is.
- Don’t ramble. Overlong answers may make you sound apologetic or indecisive.
- Don’t lie. Answer questions truthfully.
- Don’t express resentment. Avoid derogatory remarks about present or former employers.
- Don’t wear heavy perfume or cologne. The interviewer may not share your tastes.
Closing the Interview
Job candidates often second-guess themselves after interviews. By asking good questions and closing strongly, you can reduce post-interview doubts. If you feel that the interview went well and you want to take the next step, express your interest to the interviewer. Try an approach like the following: “After learning more about your company, the position and responsibilities, I believe that I have the qualities you are looking for. Are there any issues or concerns that would lead you to believe otherwise?”
This is an effective closing question because it opens the door for the hiring manager to be honest with you about his or her feelings. If concerns do exist, you may be able to create an opportunity to overcome them, and have one final chance to dispel the concerns, sell your strengths and end the interview on a positive note.
A few things to remember during the closing process:
- Don’t be discouraged if an offer is not made or a specific salary is not discussed. The interviewer may want to communicate with colleagues or conduct other scheduled interviews before making a decision.
- Make sure that you have thoroughly answered these questions during the interview: “Why are you interested in our company?” and “What can you offer?”
- Express appreciation for the interviewer’s time and consideration.
- Ask for the interviewer’s business card so you can write a thank you letter as soon as possible.
Follow-up
After your interview, follow-up is critical. As soon as possible, write down key issues uncovered in the interview. Think of the qualifications the employer is looking for and match your strengths to them. A “thank you” letter or e-mail should be written no later than 24 hours after the interview. Be sure to call your recruiter to discuss your interview and your next steps, as well.
January 2012 Employment News
• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •
Economic Outlook is Modest, with a Chance for Surprise
Spotlight on the Middle East & North Africa
A Year After the Arab Spring
Region Likely to be Unscathed by Federal Budget Cuts
• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •
Relocation can be costly, and most companies are more reluctant to pick up the tab these days than they have been in past years, Noble said.
“In bygone days, companies would buy your house and do stuff like that to help you relocate, but that’s very rare anymore,” he said. “It’s a lot easier for somebody to relocate if they rent and are single … as opposed to somebody who has a $300,000 house that they have to sell and two kids in high school.”
Jeff Noble, Management Recruiters of Dayton
As quoted in the Dayton Daily News
December 16, 2011
Economic Outlook is Modest, with a Chance for Surprise
In the final moments of trading on the final trading day of the year, the S&P 500 dipped .04 points into the negative for the year, or -0.0032 percent. In many ways it seemed like a fitting conclusion. The questions and concerns that investors, consumers, employers and employees faced in the United States and abroad over the last year have been both foundational and astronomical in their scope, with many left unresolved.
In Europe, a growing chorus of critics has brought into question the future of the world’s largest currencies. In Asia, countries with a massive slice of the world’s global population have started to remove the term “emerging” from their economies’ status. Many Latin American countries, for the first time in modern economics, seem to have survived a crippling global downturn with successful monetary policy. In the United States, we saw a credit rating agency report that America’s debt, for the first time in more than 70 years, was not without risk and economists began to build economic models for how the global economy might function without the U.S. at the top of the pile.
“For the last few years, we’ve gotten to December, looked back and had to admit it wasn’t as good a year as we were hoping it would be. Now, no one wants to risk being too positive about 2012 and what it could mean for the economy and jobs,” notes Rob Romaine, president of MRINetwork. “At the same time, there is enough information to at least say, ‘this is one that could surprise us.’”
A recent survey by the Conference Board said consumer confidence rose from 55.2 to 64.5 points between November and December, while its Expectations Index rose from 66.4 to 76.4 points. The Conference Board also cautioned against optimism while reporting a 1.28 percent increase in its Employment Trends Index from 102.42 to 103.7.
“In the management and executive ranks, we’ve seen an increase over the last six months of employers seeking to back-fill positions vacated because of resignations, showing an improvement in the portability of talent in the labor market,” says Romaine. “Employees are finding and accepting new jobs, and their former employers are discovering they can’t leave those positions open.”
Top employed candidates sticking their proverbial foot into the labor market have added to the pool of available talent over the last half of the year. The demand for candidates has also increased, with the number of job postings calling for a bachelor’s degree having risen by nearly 20 percent in the last year. Many employers’ processes for screening and interviewing mid- and senior-level candidates has continued to elongate and the amount of time top candidates remain on the market has actually shrunk, while multiple offers have increased in frequency.
“There aren’t any large single events on the calendar in 2012 that are going to take up the slack in the labor market, and we have no reason to expect that issues hanging over the global economy are going to come to an immediate or even a positive resolution,” says Romaine. “At the same time, there is a pretty solid foundation of reasons to suspect that the economy will maintain a modest pace of growth and that total employment will continue to slowly improve. And, there’s even a chance that the economy could do better than we expect.”
In November, a rising unemployment rate in Australia began to decelerate while its manufacturing index in December showed expansion for the first time in six months. While the country never entered recession, the last half of 2011 saw a substantial slow down.
German unemployment has managed to continue to fall for more than two and a half years, reaching 5.5 percent in October. It is one of the few bright spots in the EU labor market where total unemployment has risen to 9.8 in October, its highest point since the global downturn began.
Spotlight on the Middle East & North Africa
A Year After the Arab Spring
January 2011 saw the beginning of an unprecedented wave of uprisings throughout North Africa and the Middle East, resulting in the ouster of the governments of Tunisia, Libya, and Egypt and significant government changes in at least a half-dozen other nations. A year later, with the exception of protests against the interim military government in Egypt and the Assad government in Syria, much of the dust has settled.
The short-term economic impact on the region though, as expected, hasn’t been positive. Tourism revenue, which in 2010 was the second-largest source of foreign exchange earnings for Egypt has seen steep declines, as have other countries in the region. Tourism is important not only because it brings fresh currency into the economy, but also because its labor-intensive nature requires a certain level of employment. Foreign investment, too, has been impacted, as investors remain leery of the interim governments.
In the past decade, many of the region’s non-oil-exporting countries have actually been experiencing modest GDP growth, averaging between 3 and 4 percent per year. It may be another year until foreign investment and tourist dollars return to previous levels, allowing these countries to see the same growth.
Economists estimate that as many as 48 million jobs will need to be created over the next 10 years to help reduce an unemployment rate in the region topping 10 percent and a youth unemployment rate of 24 percent.
Many of the changes that have come about because of the Arab Spring, however, are likely to help make that possible. The increased transparency and social and economic reforms the protests spurred will make many of the non-oil-producing countries more attractive for foreign investment in the private sector –if stability returns. In fact, many of the non-oil-producing nations in North Africa and the Middle East are among the least internationally-connected economies in the world.
The Arab Spring was caused in large part by rising unemployment, which itself was brought about by the plummeting price of oil in early 2009. As the price of oil fell from over $100 a barrel to as low as $37 a barrel on January 16, 2009, construction projects throughout the oil-producing states, especially in the UAE, were put on hold. Those projects employed mostly laborers from North African countries like Egypt and Tunisia whose visas were revoked after their employment ended.
Today, the price of oil has returned back above $100 a barrel and construction projects are revived, and with them, both labor and professional jobs are back on the rise. As those jobs return, they will help to provide a short-term boost to employment while their economies begin to cultivate more robust domestic opportunities that will provide for longer-term stability.
Region Likely to be Unscathed by Federal Budget Cuts
The Washington, D.C. area is home to nearly 15 percent of the federal government’s workforce. So as the talk on Capitol Hill and in the presidential primary continues to focus on debt and deficit reduction, there should be no region more concerned than the metro area. In fact, as much as one-third of the region works directly for the federal government and its contractors, with most of the remaining two-thirds almost all indirectly employed because of the existence of the federal government.
“Among contractors in the defense industry there is understandably a great deal of concern since many of those cuts have not yet been formalized,” says Eric Beebe, president of Management Recruiters of Gaithersburg in Maryland. “But outside of those, the contractor community is actually rather confident going into 2012. The types of services they perform for government agencies—ranging from network engineering to custodial services—can’t be cut and those services are expected to stay at a similar level throughout the next year.”
Because of the sequestration provisions of the Congressional compromise over the debt ceiling in August 2011, the Department of Defense will be cutting nearly a half-trillion dollars from its 10-year budget. The exact cuts have not been announced, though they are expected to be made public in late January. The same sequestration provision is requiring that more than another half-trillion dollars be cut from the remainder of the federal budget over the next 10 years.
Beebe says, “The majority of cuts are unlikely to come from either federal employees or contractors in the D.C. area. The agencies are more likely to cut or consolidate services from across the country rather than substantially reduce their district-based operations.”
The U.S. Postal Service, which has been under pressure to reduce its $75 billion annual budget, is proposing to do just that. In plans released last month, the USPS will close 487 postal processing facilities and 3,700 of the 32,000 post offices across the United States.
“Spending cuts may even be a boon to contractors as agencies cut back on having a physical presence in smaller communities, possibly relying instead on contractors to provide the on-the-ground delivery of services in those areas,” notes Beebe.
At 10.6 percent, unemployment in the District of Columbia is well above the nation’s 8.6 percent rate. Yet, the District’s two neighboring states, Maryland and Virginia, which are home to many government employees, contractors, and agencies, both hold unemployment rates well below the national average, at 6.9 and 6.2 percent, respectively.
No matter how much federal government spending may vary, notes Beebe, the one event that seems to substantially impact the district area economy is when the White House changes parties.
“When the presidency changes parties—Democrat or Republican—all the priorities change. As those new plans are being drawn up, spending in the district slows for about a year as the budgets get sorted out,” says Beebe. “And whether or not that will affect the region in 2013 won’t be known until November 6.”
